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Market Summary - Friday 20th April 2018

Compiled by Aaron Dolin

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OVERALL

  • Markets are becoming edgy as they await the upcoming weather events this weekend. If recent forecasts miss actuals we could see some big moves in values. The AUD sold off overnight, just holding above US0.77.                                                                               

WHEAT 

Contract

CBOT (c/bu)

CBOT (AUD/t)

KCBOT (c/bu)

MGEX (c/bu)

May 18  (K)

476.75

+1.50

$226.65

$0.71

495.25

+6.50

613.25

-4.75

July 18  (N)

490.75

+1.50

$233.30

$0.71

514.50

+6.75

619.25

-5.50

Sept 18 (U)

508.50

+1.50

$241.74

$0.71

533.50

+6.25

624.00

-5.75

Dec 18 (Z)

532.25

+1.75

$253.03

$0.83

559.75

+5.50

633.00

-5.25

  • Concern of a possible lack of widespread rain again drove winter wheat values overnight. Embarrassing export sales saw spring wheat values sold off.
  • The USDA reported old crop weekly US wheat export sales of -66.9kmt – well below trade expectations.
  • The by-class sales breakdown:1kmt of hard red winter; 23.4kmt of soft red winter; -61.1kmt of hard red spring.
  • Iraq purchased 100kmt of Australian origin wheat overnight, at around $298mt CIF.
  • A USDA ag attaché estimates Canada will produce a 29.9mmt wheat crop this season, citing the expected lowered spring wheat yields should be offset by additional planted area.

 

CORN

Contract

CBOT (c/bu)

May 18  (K)

382.00

-1.00

July 18  (N)

391.00

-0.75

Sept 18 (U)

398.50

-0.75

  • Corn was caught between wheat and beans overnight, eventually succumbing to beans but found some late support from strong export sales.
  • US corn plantings continue to be delayed due to the unfavourable weather conditions, which has investors watching acreage estimates with interest. Click here for an interesting short article on corn plantings.
  • The USDA reported weekly US corn export sales of 1.09mmt – again exceeding trade estimates.
  • Both China’s ag ministry and starch industry estimate the country’s corn consumption will increase to 225mmt in 2018, a further increase of 15mmt from 2017.

 

OILSEEDS    

Contract

CBOT Soybeans (c/bu)

ICE Canola (CAD/t)

Contract

MATIF Rapeseed (Euro/t)

May 18  (K)

1037.25

-4.50

534.40

+8.00

May 18   (K)

343.75

+1.25

July 18  (N)

1049.00

-4.25

534.50

+7.50

Aug 18   (Q)

344.50

+1.50

Sept 18  (U)

1044.50

-4.50

519.70

+5.50

Nov 18   (X)

349.25

+2.50

  • Weakness in the soymeal markets weighed on beans overnight, although like corn the downside was limited thanks to some decent export numbers.
  • The USDA reported weekly US wheat export sales of 1.04mmt – coming in-line with trade expectations.
  • For every increase in Brazils bean production estimate it seems Argentina gets a downgrade, with markets seemingly now not convinced Brazil can wave the flag alone for long.  

 

OTHER

 

 

 

AUDUSD

0.7728

-0.0064

AUDCAD

0.9792

-0.0049

CRUDE (K)

68.29

-0.18

  • The AUD got hammered overnight following another lift in longer-dated US bond yields which sparked investor preference to buy back into the USD.
  • The ASX200 (^AXJO) added a further 19 points (0.3%) yesterday on the back of some strong performances from the mining sector. (CommSec TV).
  • The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) rallied 80 points overnight to close out on 1204.

 

SPREADS

 

Close

 

Close

 

Close

WN8 - WK8

14.00

0.00

KWK8 - WK8

18.50

+5.00

MWK8 - WK8

136.50

-6.25

WU8 - WK8

31.75

0.00

KWN8 - WN8

23.75

+5.25

MWN8 - WN8

128.50

-7.00

WZ8 - WK8

55.50

+0.25

KWU8 - WU8

25.00

+4.75

MWU8 - WU8

115.50

-7.25

WK8 - CK8

94.75

+2.50

KWK8 - CK8

113.25

+7.50

KWN8 - CN8

123.50

+7.50

 

Have a great day!

Aaron Dolin

Local. Versatile. Reliable.