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Market Summary - Wednesday 20th of February 2019

Compiled by Hayley Hobbs

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OVERALL

 

  • Wheat was a blood bath as funds continued to liquidate their long positions. Losses in wheat pressured corn and soybeans lower. The AUD recovered some of yesterday’s losses and is trading at 0.7157 this morning. Keep an eye out for wage data due today which should effect the AUD’s direction.

 

WHEAT 

Contract

CBOT (c/bu)

CBOT (AUD/t)

KCBOT (c/bu)

MGEX (c/bu)

Mar 19 (H)

489.75

-14.50

$251.44

-8.72

460.75

-15.75

555.50

-17.50

May 19 (K)

492.25

-14.75

$252.72

-8.85

468.25

-16.25

555.25

-11.75

July 19 (N)

496.50

-12.75

$254.90

-7.83

478.25

-15.00

560.75

-9.50

Sept 19 (U)

506.00

-12.50

$259.78

-7.73

490.25

-14.75

568.25

-7.50

 

  • The funds continued to liquidate their long position yesterday which led to major losses in all commodities and wheat hitting fresh lows.
  • The liquidation is being fueled by the major inverse between new and old crop values. Disappointing export data (backdated from January) and the lack of production issues for new crop around the globe don’t help.
  • EU values succumbed to US pressure and fell through the seven month lows they narrowly avoided yesterday.
  • Jordan once again made no purchase in their reissued tender for 120k while GASC announced a tender after the session’s close for April delivery. While it is likely US grain will win the GASC tender, the fact that they’re buying for April has many wondering how the US is going to shift the huge amount of stock they’re currently sitting on before new crop comes online in late April.
  • ABARE’s released their final 2018/19 crop estimate which called the total wheat crop 17.3mmt which is an 11 year low and well behind last year’s efforts of 21.24mmt.

 

CORN & BARLEY

Contract

CBOT (c/bu)

Mar 19 (H)

369.75

-5.00

May 19 (K)

378.00

-4.75

July 19 (N)

386.00

-4.50

Sept 19 (U)

390.75

-3.50

 

  • Technical selling and pressure from wheat and soybeans saw corn post losses overnight. March values are trading below 370c/bu for the first time this year.
  • ABARE’s have reduced their Australian 2018/19 sorghum estimate to 1.3mmt due to ongoing dry and unfavourable weather on the East Coast.
  • The wildcard for US values remains a trade deal with China. Any significant purchases of US corn by the Chinese will have an resounding impact on the balance sheet

 

OILSEEDS    

Contract

CBOT Soybeans (c/bu)

ICE Canola (CAD/t)

Contract

MATIF Rapeseed (Euro/t)

Mar 19 (H)

900.75

-6.75

473.70

-2.10

May 19 (K)

363.25

+2.25

May 19 (K)

914.50

-7.00

482.30

-2.50

August 19 (Q)

360.75

+0.50

July 19 (N)

928.00

-7.00

482.30

-2.50

Nov 19 (X)

365.50

+0.50

 

  • US soybeans remain sensitive to improving conditions in South American and ongoing trade negotiations with China.
  • ABARE’s have reduced their 2018/19 canola estimate to 2.18mmt which is 40% less than the 2017/18 crop.

 

OTHER

Contract

 

 

AUDUSD

0.7157

+0.0035

AUDCAD

0.9459

+0.0019

AUDEUR

0.6309

+0.0005

CRUDE (H)

56.09

+0.50

 

  • The AUD reclaimed yesterday’s losses on the back of a selloff in the USD.
  • The international market remains sensitive to headlines surrounding Brexit and US/Chinese negotiations as well as weak economic data.  
  • Australian wage data will be released today and will be crucial to maintaining positive momentum.

 

SPREADS

 

Close

Change

 

Close

Change

 

Close

Change

WK9 - WH9

2.50

-0.25

KWH9 - WH9

-29.00

-1.25

MWH9 - WH9

65.75

-3.00

WN9 - WH9

6.75

+1.75

KWK9 - WK9

-24.00

-1.50

MWK9 - WK9

63.00

+3.00

WU9 - WH9

6.75

+1.75

KWN9 - WN9

-18.25

-2.25

MWN9 - WN9

64.25

+3.25

WH9 - CH9

120.00

-9.50

KWH9 - CH9

91.00

-10.75

MWH9 - CH9

185.75

-12.50

 

Have a great day!

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