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Market Summary - Thursday 20th June 2019

Compiled by Hayley Hobbs

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OVERALL

 

  • Ag markets ended lower across the board as a lack of new input led to a round of profit taking. The AUD is marginally higher this morning after the US Fed left interest rates unchanged but their commentary hinted a cut will be made in the coming months.

 

WHEAT 

Contract

CBOT (c/bu)

CBOT (AUD/t)

KCBOT (c/bu)

MGEX (c/bu)

July 19 (N)

522.25

-9.25

$278.84

-5.15

457.50

-7.75

541.50

-10.75

Sept 19 (U)

526.75

-8.75

$281.24

-4.88

468.00

-9.00

548.50

-10.25

Dec 19 (Z)

536.00

-10.75

$286.18

-5.95

490.00

-9.25

561.00

-10.25

Mar 20 (H)

546.50

-11.75

$291.78

-6.49

511.00

-9.75

573.25

-10.50

 

  • Still reliant on corn for direction wheat ended sharply lower in sympathy.
  • A combination of Russian (110k) and Romanian (180k) wheat took out the GASC tender for roughly USD210/tonne landed. US wheat was far too expensive (HRW USD22/t over and SRW USD32/t over) which contributed to the downward pressure in markets overnight.
  • Reports that HRW harvest is coming along better than expected combined with a sunny outlook beyond the weekend also tried to weigh on wheat values but it is still too early to determine the likelihood of either.  
  • The high degree of uncertainty around SRW quality is the reason the spread between Chicago and Minni values have narrowed. Spring wheat which is traded on the Minni bourse is of much higher protein/quality than SRW hence the usual premium to SRW.

 

CORN & BARLEY

Contract

CBOT (c/bu)

July 19 (N)

441.00

-8.75

Sept 19 (U)

446.25

-9.25

Dec 19 (Z)

453.25

-9.75

Mar 20 (H)

458.75

-9.50

 

  • With no new input to carry on upwards momentum corn settled lower on the back of profit taking.
  • Ukraine has flagged their intention to increase corn and barley exports to China amid the ongoing trade war.
  • Although ethanol production has declined week-on-week, this week’s data shows that ethanol inventories are at their lowest level in over a year.
  • China has completed their review on the effects of importing DDGs and has decided to keep anti-dumping duties and anti-subsidy tariffs in place so as to protect domestic producers. This is not positive for US corn demand.

 

OILSEEDS    

Contract

CBOT Soybeans (c/bu)

Contract

ICE Canola (CAD/t)

Contract

MATIF Rapeseed (€/t)

July 19 (N)

903.25

-10.25

July 19 (N)

455.50

-5.00

August 19 (Q)

369.75

-2.00

August 19 (Q)

909.50

-10.75

Nov 19 (X)

469.30

-6.70

Nov 19 (X)

372.75

-1.50

September 19 (U)

916.00

-11.25

Jan 20 (F)

475.90

-7.00

Feb 20 (G)

375.00

-1.50

 

  • Soybeans softened in tandem with corn as profit taking forced values lower.
  • US weather looks set to improve after the weekend for soybean areas that currently remain unplanted.
  • Soybeans remain unhopeful regarding the state of trade negotiations with China despite the plan for the two presidents to meet a the G20 next week.

 

OTHER

Contract

 

 

AUDUSD

0.6882

+0.0005

AUDCAD

0.9143

-0.0060

AUDEUR

0.6130

-0.0012

CRUDE (N)

53.97

-0.14

 

  • Although rates were left unchanged the US Fed dropped the use of the term ‘patient’ from their commentary, signaling a change in interest rates is likely in the months ahead if economic conditions weaken any further. The USD was immediately softer in response allowing the AUD to inch higher.  
  • Despite lower inventories crude oil values ended softer due to the weight of softer US equity markets following dovish comments from the US Fed.
  • There is little data of note due for release today.

 

SPREADS

 

Close

Change

 

Close

Change

 

Close

Change

WU9 - WN9

4.50

+0.50

KWN9 - WN9

-64.75

+1.50

MWN9 - WN9

19.25

-1.50

WZ9 - WN9

13.75

-1.50

KWU9 - WU9

-58.75

-0.25

MWU9 - WU9

21.75

-1.50

WH0 - WN9

24.25

-2.50

KWZ9 - WZ9

-46.00

+1.50

MWZ9 - WZ9

25.00

+0.50

WN9 - CN9

81.25

-0.50

KWN9 - CN9

16.50

+1.00

MWN9 - CN9

100.50

-2.00

 

Have a great day!

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