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Market Summary - Tuesday 18th of December 2018

Compiled by Hayley Hobbs

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OVERALL

 

  • Wheat higher on rising Russian FOB values and a weaker USD. Soybeans are expecting more Chinese business to be announced, which is also putting a floor in corn’s losses. The AUD marginally higher this morning at 0.7186.

 

WHEAT 

Contract

CBOT (c/bu)

CBOT (AUD/t)

KCBOT (c/bu)

MGEX (c/bu)

Mar 19 (H)

535.25

+5.25

$273.65

+2.12

522.00

+3.75

585.25

+1.25

May 19 (K)

541.75

+5.25

$276.97

+2.11

533.50

+4.25

590.50

+1.50

July 19 (N)

547.75

+5.00

$280.04

+1.98

543.75

+5.25

596.75

+1.75

Sept 19 (U)

554.50

+4.75

$283.49

+1.84

555.25

+5.25

603.50

+2.00

 

  • Wheat futures continue to remain focused on the export market.
  • A softer USD provided support to values overnight as it improves competitiveness from an export perspective.
  • Russian and Argentinean FOB values continue to push higher which is supportive of US values.
  • As mentioned in previous updates, all eyes will be on Friday’s meeting of Russian Ag Officials and whether any trade restrictions are imposed. Earlier in the year we saw a significant rally when it was thought that Russian exports were about to be restricted.
  • EU Monitoring Ag Resources are reporting cereal crops as underdeveloped due to late planting dates and warmer than usual temps at this time of year, casting concern over the crop’s ability to withstand freezes during winter dormancy.

 

CORN & BARLEY

Contract

CBOT (c/bu)

Mar 19 (H)

384.00

-0.75

May 19 (K)

391.75

-0.50

July 19 (N)

398.25

-0.50

Sept 19 (U)

399.75

-0.25

 

  • Profit taking saw corn soften, but values remain supported by the expectation that Chinese business is around the corner.
  • Although Ukrainian corn is aggressively priced to the market, some suspect that the region does not have the logistical power to export its mammoth crop efficiently, which will probably allow US corn to remain in the picture for now. Previously, the record for Ukrainian corn exports was 21mmt, and the USDA have them penciled in for 28mmt this year.
  • French analysts left the barley crop ratings unchanged this week at 76% rated good/excellent.

 

OILSEEDS    

Contract

CBOT Soybeans (c/bu)

ICE Canola (CAD/t)

Contract

MATIF Rapeseed (Euro/t)

Jan 19 (F)

904.75

+4.25

478.40

+0.60

Feb 19   (G)

368.00

-1.50

Mar 19 (H)

918.00

+4.25

485.50

+0.30

May 19 (K)

368.00

+2.00

May 19 (K)

931.50

+4.50

492.40

-0.10

August 19 (Q)

364.50

+0.50

 

  • Soybeans continue to be driven by sentiment surrounding the trade tensions between China and the US and expectations that more business is about to occur saw values improve overnight.  
  • The focus on Chinese business continues to overshadow the poor crush margins we have been seeing of late, although today’s number was the highest for the month so I guess that’s something.

 

OTHER

Contract

 

 

AUDUSD

0.7186

+0.0014

AUDCAD

0.9643

+0.0042

AUDEUR

0.6332

+0.0005

CRUDE (H)

50.55

-1.21

 

  • The AUD slightly higher this morning on the back of a weakening USD.
  • RBA December Meeting Minutes were released this morning with the RBA maintaining that the next interest rate move is likely to be up, despite some recent negative data surrounding economic growth. Otherwise it was a pretty stock standard meeting with no new inputs to report.
  • Oil values were lower as US stocks data continues to show inventories rising, rather than falling.

 

SPREADS

 

Close

Change

 

Close

Change

 

Close

Change

WK9 - WH9

6.50

0.00

KWH9 - WH9

-13.25

-1.50

MWH9 - WH9

50.00

-4.00

WN9 - WH9

12.50

-0.25

KWK9 - WK9

-8.25

-1.00

MWK9 - WK9

48.75

-3.75

WU9 - WH9

12.50

-0.25

KWN9 - WN9

-4.00

+0.25

MWN9 - WN9

49.00

-3.25

WH9 - CH9

151.25

+6.00

KWH9 - CH9

138.00

+4.50

MWH9 - CH9

201.25

+2.00

 

Have a great day!

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